Do we even want cars driving themselves?
First, let’s start with a little vocabulary review. As it turns out, autonomous cars and self-driving cars are not the same thing. Autonomous cars aren’t exactly new— we’ve had things like cruise control for decades, and more recently self-parking and adaptive cruise control that reacts to your distance from other cars—just now it’s turning into cars that do more and more, like soon taking the reigns in traffic. Now, self-driving or driverless cars are turning out to be more of the Kit and Herbie the Love Bug of the future. Sooner than we think, the steering wheel will be replaced by a complex system of sensors, radars and GPS that just my talk back.
Can a car make better driving decisions than we can?
Going from stick vs. automatic, the new vehicle spectrum is now categorized as:
- Level 0: total driver control (manual)
- Level 1: function-specific automation (windshield wipers turn on in rain, auto-braking in emergency)
- Level 2: combined function automation (adaptive cruise control, where car can take over without consent)
- Level 3: limited self-driving automation (car more in control, but driver should be available)
- Level 4: full self-driving automation (car performs all safety-critical functions)
It’s levels three and four, and partially two, where it gets tricky and where the car and its manufacturer become more culpable. There’s no doubt that a machine has better reaction time than us slow, lowly humans, but what if it has to make the choice between the kid playing on the street and the ones in the back seat? What if, given the choice, it prefers to hit or miss certain brands of cars? How can a car— or any machine— ever make cognisant decisions about morality? Or will it always make the better decision?
While Google began the driverless car rumors and Uber, Apple, Amazon and Tesla raised those rumors to a roar, it looks like car companies—the true innovators of the twentieth century—will leave those twenty-first century tech companies in the dust. This might be just because car makers are much better equipped to juggle liability lawsuits and already have car marketing down.
But now—and this may be only a question a self-admitted bad driver would ask—but why wouldn’t we want to just be driven around?
How do you market an autonomous car as safe?
A Volvo is synonymous with safety and even maybe being a bit “too safe” or boring. That’s why the world was amazed when Volvo, from traffic-plagued Los Angeles, recently launched its plans to release an autonomous car, designed basically to distract you on the road while the car takes over. With a 25-inch display, fold-out tray table, and a reclining chair, Concept 26 is more like riding business class in a transatlantic flight than driving a car.
“By providing drivers the choice of when to drive or delegate driving, we are able to retain the love and freedom of the open road while fixing the broken commute,” said Anders Tylman-Mikiewicz, general manager of the Volvo Monitoring and Concept Center.
Still in prototype mode, Volvo will have 100 Swedes driving—or perhaps riding?—its autonomous cars by 2017.
But, particularly in Europe where even automatic cars are scarce and drivers are used to maintaining control—and are constantly complaining how boring it is to drive in the U.S.—who would be interested in just letting the car do its own thing? While Google Glass landed flat, Microsoft is, typically, going straight on enterprise highway with its HoloLens. Volvo is partnering with HoloLens to allow shoppers to experience autonomous driving in virtual reality first. They say that HoloLens lets you “see the soul of the car,” allowing your eyes to break the car down into pieces, looking at “its skeleton of safety” and viewing from the vantage point of the accident-prevention sensors, in an effort to build understanding and trust in the car to do its best for you.
The Swedish car company is also looking for ways to help vehicles react better to erratic kangaroos. Perhaps one day the cars will punch back?
The Boston Consulting Group sees fully and partly automated cars only reaching around 25 percent of new-car sales by 2035, but potentially limitless growth in the “assisted driving” features market. Now we all know two decades is an absurdly long time out to predict the future of any tech, but certainly I had hoped for flying cars by then!
What do you think cars will be like in 2035? What about 2016? Tweet your vehicular visions to @TefDigital today!
